VARSIA
Decision intelligence · not a sportsbook

Bet better, not more.

See where your sportsbook disagrees with the sharps — and when to skip the bet entirely. Varsia shows the fair price, the edge, and the discipline to walk away.

1,400+ disciplined bettors
★★★★★ 4.8 · App Store
Live divergence
NBATonight · 7:30 ET
Denver Nuggets vs Memphis Grizzlies
Δ5.9 pts
VA
Varsia model
Our projection
Fair prob
57.8%
Odds
-137
PI
Pinnacle
Sharp consensus · de-vigged
Fair prob
51.9%
Odds
-108
BO
Bovada
Your sportsbook
Fair prob
46.0%
Odds
+117
Fair prob51.9%
Edge+5.9 pts
Kelly1.33%
½ Kelly0.66%

Bovada is pricing the Nuggets ~6 points cheaper than the sharp fair line. That gap is the value — a meaningful +EV divergence.

Dodgers ML
+EV
Fair prob54.1%
Edge+3.2 pts
Kelly0.94%
Best bookDraftKings
Compares lines acrossPinnacleFanDuelDraftKingsBetMGMBovadaCaesars
The problem

You're betting blind.

The house doesn't beat you with luck. It beats you with information you never get to see.

01

Recreational books shade lines

FanDuel and DraftKings nudge prices toward the public. You pay the tax without ever seeing it.

02

You can't see the sharp price

Pinnacle takes sharp action and barely moves. That fair number is invisible to most bettors.

03

So you bet on vibes

Gut feelings, last night's game, a hot take. No reference price, no edge, no record of whether it worked.

The core idea

Three perspectives on every game

When your book diverges meaningfully from the sharp fair price, that gap is the signal. We measure it, in points, every time.

Varsia model
Our independent projection of the true probability.
Pinnacle (sharp)
The sharpest book's consensus, de-vigged to a fair price.
Your sportsbook
FanDuel, DraftKings, Bovada — wherever you actually bet.
Δ5.9
The divergence
Bovada is mispricing this by ~6 points. That's your edge.
NBATonight · 7:30 ET
Denver Nuggets vs Memphis Grizzlies
Δ5.9 pts
VA
Varsia model
Our projection
Fair prob
57.8%
Odds
-137
PI
Pinnacle
Sharp consensus · de-vigged
Fair prob
51.9%
Odds
-108
BO
Bovada
Your sportsbook
Fair prob
46.0%
Odds
+117
Fair prob51.9%
Edge+5.9 pts
Kelly1.33%
½ Kelly0.66%

Bovada is pricing the Nuggets ~6 points cheaper than the sharp fair line. That gap is the value — a meaningful +EV divergence.

The opposite of every tout

The only app that tells you not to bet.

Everyone sells you locks. We'll talk you out of the bad ones. When every book is within a point of the sharp price, there's no edge — and the honest answer is to pass.

  • No "lock of the day." Ever.
  • Calibrated markets are flagged, not hyped.
  • Discipline is the edge most bettors are missing.
NFLSun · 4:25 ET
Don't bet — calibrated
Chiefs −6.5 vs Raiders
Pinnacle
−6.4
FanDuel
−6.5
DraftKings
−6.5
BetMGM
−6.0
Max spread vs sharp1.2 ptsNo edge

Everyone's on the Chiefs tonight. All books are within 1.2 pts of the sharp fair price — there's no edge here. This is a pass.

What's inside

An analyst's terminal, in your pocket.

Divergence detection

We watch every book against the sharp fair price and surface the meaningful gaps.

Flagged tonight7 games

+EV value bets

Fair probability, edge in points, and Kelly sizing on every qualifying play.

Avg edge+3.4 pts

Odds comparison

One screen, every book. Always bet the best available number.

Books tracked11

"Don’t bet" signals

Calibrated markets get flagged as passes. Discipline, built in.

Passes called320+

Kelly sizing

Full and ½-Kelly stake guidance so you size to your real edge, not your gut.

Default½ Kelly

Daily analysis feed

Transparent, human-reviewed Varsia AI analysis — free, every day.

Posts / day6–9
Proof, not promises

Every call, logged against the close.

We don't grade ourselves on wins and losses — variance lies. We grade on closing-line value: did we beat the number the market settled at? Transparently. Including the misses.

+0 bps
Avg CLV · trailing 90d
0%
Calls that beat the close
Closing-line value ledgerlast 6 calls
Beat the close4/6
Resolved W4/6
DateCallBookWe gotCloseCLVResult
Jun 6Nuggets MLBovada+117−104+5.9win
Jun 6Under 8.5 (MLB)FanDuel−105−118+3.1win
Jun 5Heat +4.5DraftKings+4.5+3.5+1.0win
Jun 5Yankees MLBetMGM−130−124−1.4loss
Jun 4Liverpool DNBBovada+102−110+4.8win
Jun 4Over 220.5 (NBA)FanDuel−110−106−0.9loss
Every call is logged against the closing line — wins and losses. CLV, not record, is how you measure a real edge.
Pricing

Less than one bad bet a month.

3-day free trial through the App Store. The daily feed is always free.

Monthly
$7.99/month

Full app, billed monthly. Cancel anytime.

All games, all books
Divergence + value bets
Kelly sizing
‘Don’t bet’ signals
Start free trial
★ FoundersFirst 100 members
$59.99/year$79.99

Locked for life. Everything in Annual, plus a permanent founder badge and direct line to the team.

0 / 100 claimed100 left
Everything in Annual
Founder badge in the community
Price locked for life
Vote on the roadmap
Claim a founders seat
Annual
$79.99/year

Two months free vs monthly.

Everything in Monthly
Personalized bet tracking
Your-book line alerts
CLV history export
Start free trial

All plans include the 3-day free trial. Subscriptions are managed through your App Store account. 21+. Not a sportsbook.

Bet better, not more.

Start the 3-day free trial, or read today's analysis free in the community. No locks, no hype — just the sharp price and the discipline to use it.